The Case-Shiller Shows Home Prices Are Still On Their Way Up

For the second month in a row, 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller real estate markets posted higher home values. It's the 6th consecutive strong showing for the benchmark private-sector housing index.

Combined with falling home supplies and rising sales figures, this month's Case-Shiller Index suggests that housing may have bottomed sometime earlier this year.

It's cause for optimism.

Even Case-Shiller respresentatives seem excited. In its press release, the publishers singled out the index's winning streak, commenting on the recent "stabilization in national real estate values".

But, in that statement, we see the Case-Shiller Index's biggest flaw. The index ipurports itself to be a national real estate metric but, in reality, there is no such thing as a national real estate market.

All real estate is local.

The Case-Shiller Index reports home values for 20 U.S. cities. Each of those cities, however, is comprised of smaller neighborhoods, each with its own character, desirability, and price points. Case-Shiller attempts to lump it all together -- an impossibility.

As an example, New York City posted a nearly 1 percent increase in July but that figure is just a city summary. The actual market in three distinct neighborhoods -- Upper East Side, Chelsea, and Flatbush -- vary tremendously. Not to mention Long Island, too.

Flaws aside, though, Case-Shiller is still important. It helps to identify broader trends in housing and housing may hold the key to our economic future.

With July's Case-Shiller Index, we see that the housing market's recovery is being sustained.

Existing Home Supply Falls By Nearly A Month

As reported by the National Association of REALTORS®, the number of Existing Home Sales dipped last month, ending the metric's 5-month winning streak.

Newspaper headlines today are overwhelmingly negative on housing. You'd almost believe this year's housing recovery had ended.

That's hardly the case.

See, the other side of the Existing Home Sales story is that -- while the number of units sold did fall by 3 percent -- the existing supply fell by nearly an entire month.

To home buyers and home sellers, this is huge. Home prices are based on supply and demand and with supplies plummeting, it means that home prices are poised to rise.

Indeed, dwindling inventory isn't "news" to today's buyers. Multiple offer situations have been common since the start of the summer and, should supplies fall further, they may soon be the home-buying rule rather than the exception.

Since peaking in November 2008, existing home supplies are down 23%.

Fannie Mae Passes New, Tougher Mortgage Guidelines

Getting approved for a mortgage is about to get harder.

For the second time in less than 3 months, Fannie Mae announced changes to its mortgage guidelines.

In its official announcement, Fannie Mae details the updates, meant to reduce the mortgage firm's overall risk.

The first major change is with respect to credit scoring. All Fannie Mae loans -- whether underwritten electronically or manually -- require a 620 credit score minimum. There are very few exceptions.

A second change relates to loans with private mortgage insurance. Homeowners whose loan-to-value exceeds 80 percent now have a choice:

1. Accept higher mortgage insurance premiums month-after-month
   
2. Accept a one-time fee paid at closing to compensate for higher risk

Both options pass higher costs to consumers.

Then, a third change relates to maximum debt-to-income ratio. As announced in a separate document, Fannie Mae will no longer approve expense ratios exceeding 45 percent except with very strong assets and credit to back it up. In no case can expense ratios exceed 50 percent.

There are other changes, too, including the elimination of seldom-used mortgage products and new risk-based pricing on "expanded level" approvals.

Fannie Mae implements its updates during the weekend of December 12.

Therefore, if you're going to need (or want) a new mortgage later this year, consider moving up your timeframe to October or November. Once the guidelines change, getting approved for a mortgage is going to be tougher.